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PMR's Editorial philosophy:
"It is only by standing on the shoulders of
giants that I have been able to see further."
Sir Isaac Newton,
1642–1727
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HIV/Aids update
Fusing HIV/Aids risk segmentation and demographic modelling
Mari Harris, Director and Political Analyst, Markinor (Pty) Ltd and Carel van Aardt, Professor and Economic Demographer, Bureau of Market Research, Unisa.
There is, at present, a wide variety of survey and modeling results available providing insights into HIV prevalence rates in South Africa, the number of people with full-blown Aids and the number of people dying each year due to Aids-related diseases. Such surveys and models include, inter-alia, the HSRC’s HIV prevalence and the Department of Health/MRC annual antenatal clinic studies, and the ASSA and Spectrum demographic models. All of these studies and models appear to be somewhat flawed when subjected to closer scrutiny,
i.e. the HSRC study only makes use of saliva (and no blood) samples while the antenatal clinic studies solely focus on pregnant women. As regards the models, the ASSA model uses behavioural assumptions not derived from a dedicated survey while Spectrum only provides a demographic modeling shell with little Aids data or assumptions.
There is, thus, an urgent need to develop a model providing insight, while being based on empirical evidence.
In the joint Aids research conducted by Markinor and the BMR, insight and empirical evidence were integrated – leading to more detailed and accurate assessments regarding the impacts of HIV /Aids on the South African public as a whole, in different provinces, population groups, LS Ms, educational levels, area types and specific product and service users in South Africa. This integration is a first for South Africa.
The methodology used in this study was to obtain KAPB data by means of an HIV /Aids risk scale included in the Markinor omnibus study. The obtained data was subjected to a cluster analysis to obtain different risk groups. The results of the cluster analysis were then analysed in more detail by means of the World Health Organisation’s epidemiological (EPI) model to prepare such data for demographic modeling. As input data for the epidemiological model, results from the 2002 and 2005 HSRC HIV -prevalence studies were used. The results of the EPI model was then used in Spectrum (developed for Southern Africa) to make estimates of greatest likelihood regarding HIV prevalence rates, Aids and death rates for clusters of people usable as strategic information for inter-alia retailers and financial service providers.
It appears from the results of this study that:
- the number of people showing high-risk sexual attitudes and behaviour is still on the increase;
- the pool of HIV-positive people will still increase for some time;
- higher skilled people and higher LSMs also have a growing number of HIV positive people; and
- although more than 95% of South Africans have heard about HIV /Aids and how to prevent being infected, there is still a vast number of people – we call them ‘lover boys and girls’ – who do not believe that HIV /Aids really exists or they believe that it can be cured.
Tel: (011) 880-4821
Web: www.sabcoha.co.za
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