Ict

Is wimax too little too late? realities and myths about broadband wireless

Dr Martyn Roetter, in conjunction with BMI-TechKnowledge

A new research White Paper critically examines the hype and facts surrounding broadband Wireless technologies and WiMax in particular. This paper asks whether WiMax does indeed fulfil all the voluminous marketing claims found in the media. An essential guide for Investors and Telecom Executives, this White Paper clearly and objectively articulates the true potential for WiMax and other broadband wireless technologies.

In an analogy to the valuation of real estate, the three most important factors for the success of wireless-based services are Spectrum, Spectrum, and S pectrum. The next three most important contributors are Coverage, Coverage, and Coverage. These factors are ultimately more significant than the quasi-ideological and, unfortunately, generally confusing, self-serving, and misleading statements uttered by advocates in the vendor community that claim substantial superiority in terms of performance and/or costs of their particular technology or implementation of technology over others. Most recently, the underlying issues and factors that determine the scope and prospects for the commercial success or failure and the value of broadband wireless networks have been brought to the fore in the context of the ongoing WiMax story. WiMax faces daunting challenges in competing against other broadband wireless technologies in countries where the latter enjoy a substantial head-start, having already been extensively deployed by leading cellular operators with large customer bases. The chances for WiMax to obtain a significant market share are greatest, and associated with an initial emphasis more on fixed and nomadic broadband than on truly mobile services, in countries which have yet to see the widespread deployment of so-called 3G+wireless technologies, provided their regulators move quickly to allocate spectrum for WiMax networks.

The unfolding of the WiMax movement is a fascinating saga that crosses multiple terrains of competitive battles and political maneuvering between some of the world’s proudest and most dynamic technology companies and services providers. It has involved and continues to generate repeated, shifting and confusing claims and counterclaims regarding the supposed superiority of one technology stream over others. These claims are hard for investors to sort out and have only rarely been assessed objectively by analysts and other third parties. Furthermore, headlines such as ‘The Coming Mobile WiMax Revolution’ and ‘70 Mbps over 50km’ typically attract more attention online and in print than more nuanced and objective analyses of markets, technologies, and competitors that take account of the realities of business and usage scenarios in light of network engineering and operational issues, as well as the laws of physics. Hence, it is not surprising that it is difficult for investors or others not steeped in the wireless and telecommunications sector to distinguish truly creative visions from deceptive and unfounded mirages. This White Paper is an attempt to do so.

The full text of the White Paper can be found at www.bmi-t.co.za

Telecoms:
Denis Smit
Managing Director
(011) 540-8002 or email: denis@bmi-t.co.za
Brian Neilson
Research Director
(011) 540-8004 or email: brian@bmi-t.co.za